基于XGBoost的结肠镜肠道准备失败风险预测模型构建
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女,硕士,护士

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科研项目:重庆市沙坪坝区技术创新项目(2024123)


Development of a risk prediction model for inadequate bowel preparation for colonoscopy using XGBoost
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    目的 分析影响结肠镜检查患者肠道准备失败的危险因素,并基于极限梯度提升(XGBoost)构建肠道准备失败风险预测模型。 方法 便利选取1 133例结肠镜检查患者,均给予标准化肠道准备方案,于检查中采用波士顿肠道准备评分 量表评估肠道准备质量,并收集相关影响因素。将患者按照7∶3的比例随机分为训练集(n=793)和验证集(n=340)。利用训练集数据采用Lasso回归对相关影响因素进行筛选和降维,通过XGBoost构建预测模型;利用验证集数据进行验证和评价。基于沙普利加性解释可视化每个风险因素对预测模型的整体贡献。 结果 结肠镜检查肠道准备失败率为17.4%。基于XGBoost建立的预测模型,训练集和验证集的受试者操作特征曲线下面积分别为0.689(95%CI:0.635~0.744)和0.608(95%CI:0.428~0.787),灵敏度分别为0.815和0.798。性别、ASA分级、慢性便秘、服用影响排便习惯的药物、BMI、糖尿病、服用阿片类药物、服用抗抑郁药物、腹部或盆腔外科手术史、高血压是肠道准备失败的危险因素;其中前6个因素的贡献较大。 结论 基于XGBoost构建的结肠镜检查肠道准备失败风险预测模型具有良好的预测性能,可用于评估患者肠道准备失败的风险。

    Abstract:

    Objective To analyze the risk factors for inadequate bowel preparation for colonoscopy and to construct a risk prediction model based on Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Methods A total of 1,133 patients scheduled for colonoscopy were conve-niently selected and received a standard bowel preparation regimen.Quality of bowel preparation was assessed during the examination using the Boston Bowel Preparation Scale, and relevant influencing factors were collected.The samples were randomly divided into a training set (n=793) and a validation set (n=340) at a ratio of 7∶3.Lasso regression was applied to the training set data to screen and reduce the dimensionality of the relevant influencing factors.A prediction model was then constructed using XGBoost.The validation set was used for model validation and evaluation.SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was employed to visualize the overall contribution of each risk factor to the prediction model. Results The rate of inadequate bowel preparation was 17.4%.The prediction model established based on XGBoost showed that the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.689 (95%CI:0.635-0.744) for the training set and 0.608 (95%CI:0.428-0.787) for the validation set.The sensitivities were 0.815 and 0.798, respectively.Gender, ASA classification, chronic constipation, use of medicines that may contribute to changing bowel habits, BMI, diabetes, opiate use, antidepressant use, history of abdominal or pelvic surgery, and hypertension were identified as risk factors for inadequate bowel preparation.Among these, the first six factors contributed more significantly. Conclusion The XGBoost-based risk prediction model for inadequate bowel preparation for colonoscopy has good predictive perfor-mance and can be used to identify patients at high risk.

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王娅鑫,韩杨,阳仁美,刘晓玲.基于XGBoost的结肠镜肠道准备失败风险预测模型构建[J].护理学杂志,2026,41(7):56-61

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  • 收稿日期:2025-11-02
  • 最后修改日期:2026-01-06
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-28