基于机器学习的急性脑卒中吞咽障碍患者胃肠功能紊乱风险预测模型构建与比较
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

女,本科,副主任护师

通讯作者:

基金项目:


Establishment and comparison of gastrointestinal dysfunction risk prediction models for patients with acute strokerelated dysphagia based on machine learning
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
    摘要:

    目的 基于3种机器学习构建急性脑卒中吞咽障碍患者发生胃肠功能紊乱的预测模型,比较不同模型的预测性能。 方法 采用便利抽样法,选取1 095例住院急性脑卒中吞咽障碍患者作为研究对象,按照7∶3分为训练集和测试集。基于机器学习构建急性脑卒中吞咽障碍患者胃肠功能紊乱的logistic回归模型、随机森林模型、决策树模型,比较各模型的准确率、精确率、灵敏度、特异度、F1分数和受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC),评价模型的预测性能。 结果 急性脑卒中吞咽障碍患者胃肠功能紊乱发生率为49.41%。随机森林和logistic回归模型均显示, 美国国立卫生研究院卒中量表评分升高、标准吞咽功能评估量表评分升高、单核/淋巴细胞比值增高、外周血中性粒细胞/淋巴细胞比值增高、血小板/淋巴细胞比值增高、白蛋白降低、卒中部位位于脑干及小脑是急性脑卒中吞咽障碍患者发生胃肠功能紊乱的风险因素(均P<0.05)。 logistic回归、随机森林和决策树模型的准确率分别为0.773、0.803、0.721,精确率分别为0.792、0.805、0.768,灵敏度分别为0.717、0.780、0.604,特异度分别为0.825、0.825、0.830,F1分数分别为0.752、0.792、0.676,AUC分别为0.848(95%CI为0.806~0.890)、0.871(95%CI为0.833~0.910)、0.728(95%CI为0.680~0.776)。 结论 通过随机森林模型构建的急性脑卒中吞咽障碍患者胃肠功能紊乱预测模型性能优于logistic回归、决策树模型,可为临床早期识别、预防及制订相关干预措施提供参考。

    Abstract:

    Objective To compare the predictive performance of 3 risk prediction models based on machine learning in predicting the risk of gastrointestinal dysfunction among patients with acute stroke-related dysphagia. Methods Using convenience sampling me-thod, 1,095 hospitalized patients with acute stroke-related dysphagia were selected and randomly divided into a training set and a test set according to the 7∶3 ratio. Three types of risk prediction models were constructed based on machine learning for gastrointestinal dysfunction in the participants, namely, logistic regression, decision tree, and random forest. The accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, F1 score and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were used to compare the predictive performance of the 3 models. Results The incidence of gastrointestinal dysfunction among the participants was 49.41%. Both the random forest and logistic regression models indicated that higher scores on the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) and the Standard Swallowing Function Assessment Scale, and elevated ratios of monocyte-to-lymphocyte, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte, and platelet-to-lymphocyte, decreased albumin levels and stroke location in the brainstem or cerebellum were risk factors of gastrointestinal dysfunction in patients with acute stroke and dysphagia (all P<0.05). As for the logistic regression mo-del, random forest model, and decision tree model, the accuracy rate was 0.773, 0.803, 0.721, the precision rate was 0.792, 0.805, 0.768, the sensitivity was 0.717, 0.780, 0.604, the specificity was 0.825, 0.825, 0.830, the F1 score was 0.752, 0.792, 0.676, and the AUC was 0.848 (95%CI:0.806-0.890), 0.871 (95%CI:0.833-0.910), and 0.728 (95%CI:0.680-0.776) respectively. Conclusion The random forest predictive model for gastrointestinal dysfunction in patients with acute stroke-related dysphagia performs better than the logistic regression model and decision tree model, so it can serve as a reference for the early clinical identification, prevention and formulation of relevant intervention measures.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

霍佳佳,方萍,陈艳君,耿良健,陈明军,张兰青,张超,王峰,陈永翱.基于机器学习的急性脑卒中吞咽障碍患者胃肠功能紊乱风险预测模型构建与比较[J].护理学杂志,2026,41(9):35-40

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2025-12-02
  • 最后修改日期:2026-02-02
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-09