基于营养视角的头颈癌患者放疗中断风险预测模型的构建
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

女,硕士,护士

通讯作者:

基金项目:

科研项目:浙江省教育厅一般科研项目(Y202457313);温州市科学技术局基础性科研项目(Y20220610)


Development of a risk prediction model for radio-therapy interruption in head and neck cancer patients from a nutritional perspective
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
    摘要:

    目的 基于多维度营养特征,构建并验证头颈癌患者放疗中断风险预测模型,为识别放疗中断高风险患者提供依据。 方法 选取412例头颈癌放疗患者为研究对象。采用Lasso回归、随机森林、支持向量机、极端梯度提升及K近邻5种机器学习算法构建放疗中断发生风险预测模型。比较各模型的预测性能,并利用沙普利加性解释(SHAP)方法解释最优模型中各预测变量的特征贡献。 结果 单因素分析显示,骨骼肌质量指数、NRS2002评分、预后营养指数、肿瘤部位及年龄与放疗中断显著相关。在5种机器学习算法中,K近邻表现最优:训练集受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)=0.943(95%CI:0.926~0.961),验证集AUC=0.823(95%CI:0.734~0.912)。SHAP分析提示,低骨骼肌质量指数和NRS2002评分≥3分是最关键的预测因素。 结论 构建的K近邻模型能够稳定预测头颈癌患者放疗中断风险,揭示营养相关因素在预测中的核心作用。

    Abstract:

    Objective To develop and validate a risk prediction model for radiotherapy interruption in head and neck cancer (HNC) patients based on multidimensional nutritional features, and to provide a reference for identifying the patients at high risk. Methods A total of 412 HNC patients undergoing radiotherapy were enrolled.Five machine learning algorithms-Lasso regression, random forest, support vector machine, extreme gradient boosting, and K-nearest neighbors (KNN)-were employed to construct prediction models for radiotherapy interruption.The predictive performance of these models was compared, and the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was performed to interpret the feature contributions of predictors in the optimal model. Results Univariate analysis revealed that skeletal muscle mass index (SMI), NRS2002 score (nutritional risk screening), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), tumor site, and age were significantly associated with radiotherapy interruption.Among the five algorithms, the KNN model demonstrated the best performance:the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.943 (95% CI:0.926~0.961) in the training set and 0.823 (95%CI:0.734~0.912) in the validation set.SHAP analysis indicated that low SMI and an NRS2002 score ≥3 were the most critical predictors. Conclusion The KNN model developed in this study reliably predicts the risk of radiotherapy interruption in HNC patients and highlights the vital importance of nutrition-related factors in the prediction.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

张维,黄初晴,陈柯雅,陈瑜,方雅,孙文瑞.基于营养视角的头颈癌患者放疗中断风险预测模型的构建[J].护理学杂志,2026,41(11):45-50

复制
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2025-08-10
  • 最后修改日期:2025-11-12
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-02