辅助生殖技术助孕女性孕早期阈下抑郁风险预测模型的构建与验证
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女,硕士在读,学生

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科研项目:广西研究生教育创新计划项目(YCSY2025080);广西中医药大学引进博士科研启动基金项目(2024BS025);广西高原学科护理学(康养)(桂教科研〔2026〕2号)


Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for subthreshold depression in women undergoing assisted reproductive technology in early pregnancy
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    目的 构建辅助生殖技术助孕女性孕早期阈下抑郁风险预测模型并验证,以期为临床早期识别高危人群提供参考。 方法 选取接受辅助生殖技术助孕的322例孕早期女性为研究对象,按7∶3随机分为训练集225例和内部验证集97例;另选取100例进行外部验证。采用单因素分析、Lasso回归分析和多因素logistic回归分析筛选预测变量并构建模型。通过ROC曲线下面积、Hosmer-Lemeshow检验、校准曲线和决策曲线分析(DCA)评价模型预测性能。 结果 共131例(31.0%)辅助生殖技术助孕女性孕早期存在阈下抑郁。孕期BMI、职业类型、不孕年限、不孕原因和每日睡眠时间被纳入预测模型。训练集以及内、外部验证集ROC曲线下面积分别为0.847(95%CI:0.793~0.902)、0.826(95%CI:0.743~0.909)、0.832(95%CI:0.743~0.922);Hosmer-Lemeshow 检验P值分别为0.399、0.626和0.094;校准曲线显示预测概率与观测概率基本一致;DCA显示该模型具有良好的临床适用性。 结论 辅助生殖技术助孕女性孕早期阈下抑郁风险较高。本研究构建的预测模型性能良好,可为临床识别阈下抑郁高风险人群提供参考。

    Abstract:

    Objective To construct and validate a risk prediction model for subthreshold depression (SD) in early pregnancy women undergoing assisted reproductive technology (ART), aiming to provide a reference for early identification of high-risk population. Methods A total of 322 women in early pregnancy who conceived through ART were enrolled and randomly divided into a training set (n=225) and an internal validation set (n=97) at a 7∶3 ratio.Another 100 women were enrolled for external validation.Predictors were screened through univariable analysis, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, and mul-tivariable logistic regression, and a model was constructed.The model performance was assessed via the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Hosmer-Lemeshow test, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results Totally 131(31.0%) early pregnancy women undergoing ART suffered from SD.Body mass index (BMI) during early pregnancy, occupation type, duration of infertility, reason of infertility, and daily sleep duration were incorporated into the model.The AUCs for the training set, internal validation set, and external validation set were 0.847 (95%CI:0.793~0.902), 0.826 (95%CI:0.743~0.909) and 0.832 (95%CI:0.743~0.922), respectively.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test P-values were 0.399, 0.626 and 0.094, respectively.The calibration curves showed good agreement between predicted and observed probabilities.DCA indicated that the model had favorable clinical applicability. Conclusion Women undergoing ART are at high risk of SD during early pregnancy.The prediction model developed in this study demonstrates good performance and can serve as a reference for clinical identification of high-risk populations for SD.

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钟盈,崔秋月,章亚梅,杜若雨,葛圆.辅助生殖技术助孕女性孕早期阈下抑郁风险预测模型的构建与验证[J].护理学杂志,2026,41(17):80-84

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  • 收稿日期:2026-04-20
  • 最后修改日期:2026-06-13
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-09